Počet záznamů: 1  

Modeling observations of solar coronal mass ejections with heliospheric imagers verified with the eliophysics System Observatory

  1. 1.
    SYSNO ASEP0479390
    Druh ASEPJ - Článek v odborném periodiku
    Zařazení RIVJ - Článek v odborném periodiku
    Poddruh JČlánek ve WOS
    NázevModeling observations of solar coronal mass ejections with heliospheric imagers verified with the eliophysics System Observatory
    Tvůrce(i) Möstl, C. (AT)
    Isavnin, A. (FI)
    Boakes, P. D. (AT)
    Kilpua, E. K. J. (FI)
    Davies, J. A. (GB)
    Harrison, R. A. (GB)
    Barnes, D. (GB)
    Krupař, Vratislav (UFA-U) RID, ORCID
    Eastwood, J. (GB)
    Good, S. W. (GB)
    Forsyth, R. J. (GB)
    Bothmer, V. (DE)
    Reiss, M. A. (AT)
    Amerstorfer, T. (AT)
    Winslow, R. M. (US)
    Anderson, B.J. (US)
    Philpott, L. C. (CA)
    Rodriguez, L. (BE)
    Rouillard, A. P. (FR)
    Gallagher, P. (IE)
    Nieves-Chinchilla, T. (US)
    Zhang, T. L. (AT)
    Celkový počet autorů22
    Zdroj.dok.Space Weather-the International Journal of Research and Applications. - : Wiley
    Roč. 15, č. 7 (2017), s. 955-970
    Poč.str.16 s.
    Jazyk dok.eng - angličtina
    Země vyd.US - Spojené státy americké
    Klíč. slovaspace weather ; coronal mass ejections ; STEREO ; heliospheric imagers ; Heliophysics System Observatory ; heliophysics
    Vědní obor RIVBL - Fyzika plazmatu a výboje v plynech
    Obor OECDFluids and plasma physics (including surface physics)
    CEPGJ17-06818Y GA ČR - Grantová agentura ČR
    Institucionální podporaUFA-U - RVO:68378289
    UT WOS000407927800009
    EID SCOPUS85026490376
    DOI10.1002/2017SW001614
    AnotaceWe present an advance toward accurately predicting the arrivals of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the terrestrial planets, including Earth. For the first time, we are able to assess a CME prediction model using data over two thirds of a solar cycle of observations with the Heliophysics System Observatory. We validate modeling results of 1337 CMEs observed with the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) heliospheric imagers (HI) (science data) from 8 years of observations by five in situ observing spacecraft. We use the self-similar expansion model for CME fronts assuming 60° longitudinal width, constant speed, and constant propagation direction. With these assumptions we find that 23%–35% of all CMEs that were predicted to hit a certain spacecraft lead to clear in situ signatures, so that for one correct prediction, two to three false alarms would have been issued. In addition, we find that the prediction accuracy does not degrade with the HI longitudinal separation from Earth. Predicted arrival times are on average within 2.6 ± 16.6 h difference of the in situ arrival time, similar to analytical and numerical modeling, and a true skill statistic of 0.21. We also discuss various factors that may improve the accuracy of space weather forecasting using wide-angle heliospheric imager observations. These results form a first-order approximated baseline of the prediction accuracy that is possible with HI and other methods used for data by an operational space weather mission at the Sun-Earth L5 point.
    PracovištěÚstav fyziky atmosféry
    KontaktKateřina Adamovičová, adamovicova@ufa.cas.cz, Tel.: 272 016 012 ; Kateřina Potužníková, kaca@ufa.cas.cz, Tel.: 272 016 019
    Rok sběru2019
Počet záznamů: 1  

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