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Adverse weather conditions for European wheat production will become more frequent with climate change
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SYSNO ASEP 0430075 Druh ASEP J - Článek v odborném periodiku Zařazení RIV J - Článek v odborném periodiku Poddruh J Článek ve WOS Název Adverse weather conditions for European wheat production will become more frequent with climate change Tvůrce(i) Trnka, Miroslav (UEK-B) RID, ORCID, SAI
Rötter, R. P. (FI)
Ruiz-Ramos, M. (ES)
Kersebaum, K. C. (DE)
Olesen, J. E. (DK)
Žalud, Zdeněk (UEK-B) RID, ORCID, SAI
Semenov, M. A. (GB)Zdroj.dok. Nature Climate Change. - London : Macmillian Publisher Ltd. - ISSN 1758-678X
Roč. 4, č. 7 (2014), s. 637-643Poč.str. 7 s. Jazyk dok. eng - angličtina Země vyd. GB - Velká Británie Klíč. slova grown cereal crop ; wheat ; Europe Vědní obor RIV DG - Vědy o atmosféře, meteorologie CEP EE2.3.20.0248 GA MŠMT - Ministerstvo školství, mládeže a tělovýchovy QJ1310123 GA MZe - Ministerstvo zemědělství Institucionální podpora RVO:67179843 - RVO:67179843 UT WOS 000338837400032 EID SCOPUS 84903464391 DOI 10.1038/nclimate2242 Anotace Europe is the largest producer of wheat, the second most widely grown cereal crop after rice. The increased occurrence and magnitude of adverse and extreme agroclimatic events are considered a major threat for wheat production. We present an analysis that accounts for a range of adverse weather events that might significantly affect wheat yield in Europe. For this purpose we analysed changes in the frequency of the occurrence of 11 adverse weather events. Using climate scenarios based on the most recent ensemble of climate models and greenhouse gases emission estimates, we assessed the probability of single and multiple adverse events occurring within one season. We showed that the occurrence of adverse conditions for 14 sites representing the main European wheat-growing areas might substantially increase by 2060 compared to the present (1981–2010). This is likely to result in more frequent crop failure across Europe. This study provides essential information for developing adaptation strategies. Pracoviště Ústav výzkumu globální změny Kontakt Nikola Šviková, svikova.n@czechglobe.cz, Tel.: 511 192 268 Rok sběru 2015
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