Počet záznamů: 1
Multi-GCM projections of future drought and climate variability indicators for the Mediterranean region
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SYSNO ASEP 0425806 Druh ASEP J - Článek v odborném periodiku Zařazení RIV J - Článek v odborném periodiku Poddruh J Článek ve WOS Název Multi-GCM projections of future drought and climate variability indicators for the Mediterranean region Tvůrce(i) Dubrovský, Martin (UFA-U) RID, ORCID
Hayes, M. (US)
Duce, P. (IT)
Trnka, M. (CZ)
Svoboda, M. (US)
Zara, P. (IT)Celkový počet autorů 6 Zdroj.dok. Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer - ISSN 1436-3798
Roč. 14, č. 5 (2014), s. 1907-1919Poč.str. 13 s. Forma vydání Tištěná - P Jazyk dok. eng - angličtina Země vyd. DE - Německo Klíč. slova mediterranean ; climate change ; global climate models ; temperature ; precipitation ; drought ; Palmer drought severity index ; weather generator Vědní obor RIV DG - Vědy o atmosféře, meteorologie Obor OECD Climatic research CEP IAA300420806 GA AV ČR - Akademie věd LD12029 GA MŠMT - Ministerstvo školství, mládeže a tělovýchovy Institucionální podpora UFA-U - RVO:68378289 UT WOS 000342455400018 EID SCOPUS 84907708767 DOI 10.1007/s10113-013-0562-z Anotace Future climate conditions for the Mediterranean region based on an ensemble of 16 Global Climate Models are expressed and mapped using three approaches, giving special attention to the intermodel uncertainty. (1) The scenarios of mean seasonal temperature and precipitation agree with the projections published previously by other authors. The results show an increase in temperature in all seasons and for all parts of the Mediterranean with good intermodel agreement. Precipitation is projected to decrease in all parts and all seasons (most significantly in summer) except for the northernmost parts in winter. The intermodel agreement for the precipitation changes is lower than for temperature. (2) Changes in drought conditions are represented using the Palmer Drought Severity Index and its intermediate Z-index product. The results indicate a significant decrease in soil moisture in all seasons, with the most significant decrease occurring in summer. The displayed changes exhibit high intermodel agreement. (3) The climate change scenarios are defined in terms of the changes in parameters of the stochastic daily weather generator calibrated with the modeled daily data; the emphasis is put on the parameters, which affect the diurnal and interdiurnal variability in weather series. These scenarios indicate a trend toward more extreme weather in the Mediterranean. Temperature maxima will increase not only because of an overall rise in temperature means, but partly (in some areas) because of increases in temperature variability and daily temperature range. Increased mean daily precipitation sums on wet days occurring in some seasons, and some parts of the Mediterranean may imply higher daily precipitation extremes, and decreased probability of wet day occurrence will imply longer drought spells all across the Mediterranean. Pracoviště Ústav fyziky atmosféry Kontakt Kateřina Adamovičová, adamovicova@ufa.cas.cz, Tel.: 272 016 012 ; Kateřina Potužníková, kaca@ufa.cas.cz, Tel.: 272 016 019 Rok sběru 2015
Počet záznamů: 1