Downscaling climate change scenarios for apple pest and disease modeling in Switzerland

0375089 - ÚFA 2012 RIV DE eng J - Článek v odborném periodiku
Hirschi, M. - Stoeckli, S. - Dubrovský, Martin - Spirig, C. - Calanca, P. - Rotach, M. V. - Fischer, A. M. - Duffy, B. - Samietz, J.
Downscaling climate change scenarios for apple pest and disease modeling in Switzerland.
Earth System Dynamics. Roč. 3, č. 1 (2012), s. 33-47. ISSN 2190-4979. E-ISSN 2190-4987
Grant CEP: GA AV ČR IAA300420806
Výzkumný záměr: CEZ:AV0Z30420517
Klíčová slova: Climate change * downscaling * weather generator * pest and disease modelling * Switzerland
Kód oboru RIV: DG - Vědy o atmosféře, meteorologie
http://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/3/33/2012/esd-3-33-2012.pdf

As a consequence of current and projected climate change in temperate regions of Europe, agricultural pests and diseases are expected to occur more frequently and possibly to extend to previously non-affected regions. Given their economic and ecological relevance, detailed forecasting tools for various pests and diseases have been developed, which model their phenology, depending on actual weather conditions, and suggest management decisions on that basis. Assessing the future risk of pest-related damages requires future weather data at high temporal and spatial resolution. Here, we use a combined stochastic weather generator and re-sampling procedure for producing site-specific hourly weather series representing present and future (1980–2009 and 2045–2074 time periods) climate conditions in Switzerland. The climate change scenarios originate from the ENSEMBLES multi-model projections and provide probabilistic information on future regional changes in temperature and precipitation.
Trvalý link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0207842