Learning in an estimated medium-scale DSGE model

0334167 - NHU-C 2010 RIV CZ eng J - Článek v odborném periodiku
Slobodyan, Sergey - Wouters, R.
Learning in an estimated medium-scale DSGE model.
CERGE-EI Working Paper Series. -, č. 396 (2009), s. 1-65. ISSN 1211-3298
Grant CEP: GA MŠMT LC542
Výzkumný záměr: CEZ:MSM0021620846
Klíčová slova: constant gain adaptive learning * medium–scale DSGE model * DSGE-VAR
Kód oboru RIV: AH - Ekonomie
http://www.cerge-ei.cz/pdf/wp/Wp396.pdf

In this paper we evaluate the empirical relevance of learning by private agents in an estimated medium–scale DSGE model. We replace the standard rational expectation assumption in the Smets and Wouters (2007) model by a constant gain learning mechanism. If agents know the correct structure of the model and only learn about the parameters, both expectation mechanisms result in a similar fit, and only the transition dynamics that are generated by specific initial beliefs are responsible for the differences between the two approaches. If, in addition, agents use only a reduced information set in forming the perceived law of motion, the implied model dynamics change and for some initial beliefs the marginal likelihood of the model is further improved.
Trvalý link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0178978