Research & development and growth: A Bayesian model averaging analysis

0364038 - ÚTIA 2012 RIV NL eng J - Článek v odborném periodiku
Horváth, Roman
Research & development and growth: A Bayesian model averaging analysis.
Economic Modelling. Roč. 28, č. 6 (2011), s. 2669-2673. ISSN 0264-9993. E-ISSN 1873-6122.
[Society for Non-linear Dynamics and Econometrics Annual Conferencen. Washington DC, 16.03.2011-18.03.2011]
Grant CEP: GA ČR GA402/09/0965
Výzkumný záměr: CEZ:AV0Z10750506
Klíčová slova: Research and development * Growth * Bayesian model averaging
Kód oboru RIV: AH - Ekonomie
Impakt faktor: 0.701, rok: 2011
http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2011/E/horvath-research & development and growth a bayesian model averaging analysis.pdf

We examine the effect of research and development (R&D) on long-term economic growth using the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to deal rigorously with model uncertainty. Previous empirical studies, which applied BMA, investigated the effect of dozens of regressors on long-term growth, but they did not examine the effect of R&D due to data unavailability. We extend these studies by proposing to capture the investment in R&D by the number of Nobel prizes in science. Using our indicator, the estimates show that R&D exerts a positive effect on long-term growth. This result is robust to many different parameter and model prior structures as well as to alternative definitions of R&D indicator.
Trvalý link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0199623