Recent severe heat waves in central Europe: how to view them in a long-term prospect?

0350685 - ÚFA 2011 RIV GB eng J - Článek v odborném periodiku
Kyselý, Jan
Recent severe heat waves in central Europe: how to view them in a long-term prospect?
International Journal of Climatology. Roč. 30, č. 1 (2010), s. 89-109. ISSN 0899-8418. E-ISSN 1097-0088
Grant CEP: GA ČR GC205/07/J044
Výzkumný záměr: CEZ:AV0Z30420517
Klíčová slova: heat wave * climate variability * regional warming * stochastic modelling * probability estimates * central Europe
Kód oboru RIV: DG - Vědy o atmosféře, meteorologie
Impakt faktor: 2.479, rok: 2010

The study examines whether recent occurrences of severe heat waves in central Europe were exceptional in the context of past fluctuations, and estimates their recurrence probabilities under several climate change scenarios. Probabilities of long and severe heat waves are estimated from daily temperature series generated by a first-order autoregressive model with a deterministic component (incorporating a seasonal cycle and a long-term trend). The return period of a heat wave reaching or exceeding the length of the 2006 heat wave in Prague is estimated to be around 120 years in 2006.
Trvalý link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0190622