Estimating extremes in climate change simulations using the peaks-over-threshold method with a non-stationary threshold

0350579 - ÚFA 2011 RIV NL eng J - Článek v odborném periodiku
Kyselý, Jan - Picek, J. - Beranová, Romana
Estimating extremes in climate change simulations using the peaks-over-threshold method with a non-stationary threshold.
Global and Planetary Change. Roč. 72, 1-2 (2010), s. 55-68. ISSN 0921-8181. E-ISSN 1872-6364
Grant CEP: GA ČR GA205/06/1535; GA ČR GAP209/10/2045
Grant ostatní: GA MŠk(CZ) LC06024
Výzkumný záměr: CEZ:AV0Z30420517
Klíčová slova: climate change * extreme value analysis * global climate models * peaks-over-threshold method * peaks-over-quantile regression * quantile regression * Poisson process * extreme temperatures
Kód oboru RIV: DG - Vědy o atmosféře, meteorologie
Impakt faktor: 3.351, rok: 2010

The paper presents a methodology for estimating high quantiles of distributions of daily temperature in a non-stationary context, based on peaks-over-threshold analysis with a time-dependent threshold expressed in terms of regression quantiles. The extreme value models are applied to estimate 20-yr return values of maximum daily temperature over Europe in transient global climate model (GCM) simulations for the 21st century. The method also allows splitting the projected warming of extremely high quantiles into two parts that reflect change in the location and scale of the distribution of extremes, respectively.
Trvalý link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0190546