Effectiveness of short-term numerical weather prediction in predicting growing degree days and meteorological conditions for apple scab appearance

0482429 - ÚVGZ 2019 RIV GB eng J - Článek v odborném periodiku
Lalic, B. - Francia, M. - Eitzinger, Josef - Podrascanin, Z. - Arsenic, I.
Effectiveness of short-term numerical weather prediction in predicting growing degree days and meteorological conditions for apple scab appearance.
Meteorological Applications. Roč. 23, č. 1 (2016), s. 50-56. ISSN 1350-4827. E-ISSN 1469-8080
Institucionální podpora: RVO:86652079
Klíčová slova: venturia-inaequalis * temperature * equation * schemes * model * numerical weather prediction * disease prediction * verification * apple scab * growing degree days
Obor OECD: Meteorology and atmospheric sciences
Impakt faktor: 1.411, rok: 2016

This study assesses the effectiveness of short-term numerical weather prediction (NWP) in predicting the accumulation of growing degree days (GDDs) and meteorological conditions for apple scab appearance. Apple scab is the most frequent and harmful apple disease caused by the fungus Venturia inaequalis. Using the 30days of NWP weather forecast and observed data for March 2011, representative data sets based on 24, 48, 72 and 96h forecasts were designed. The results obtained for four lowland locations in Serbia and one slightly hilly location in Austria indicate that, on a monthly basis, there is a relative deviation of up to 20% in the GDD predictions above 0 degrees C and a 40% relative deviation in the GDD predictions above 5 degrees C. In contrast to the slightly hilly location, the apple scab appearance predictions based on the NWP in lowland locations correspond well with the results obtained using observed meteorological data. This indicates that short-term NWP is potentially effective in predicting apple scab appearance and has a slight advantage in lowland regions.
Trvalý link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0277835