Delays, Masks, the Elderly, and Schools: First Covid-19 Wave in the Czech Republic

0559305 - BC 2023 RIV GB eng J - Článek v odborném periodiku
Berec, Luděk - Smyčka, J. - Levínský, René - Hromádková, Eva - Šoltés, Michal - Šlerka, J. - Tuček, V. - Trnka, J. - Šmíd, Martin - Zajíček, Milan - Diviák, T. - Neruda, Roman - Vidnerová, Petra
Delays, Masks, the Elderly, and Schools: First Covid-19 Wave in the Czech Republic.
Bulletin of Mathematical Biology. Roč. 84, č. 8 (2022), č. článku 75. ISSN 0092-8240. E-ISSN 1522-9602
Grant CEP: GA MŠk(CZ) EF16_013/0001740
Institucionální podpora: RVO:60077344 ; RVO:67985556 ; RVO:67985807 ; RVO:67985998
Klíčová slova: covid-19 pandemic * non-pharmaceutical interventions * Approximate Bayesian computation
Obor OECD: Epidemiology; Statistics and probability (UTIA-B); Computer sciences, information science, bioinformathics (hardware development to be 2.2, social aspect to be 5.8) (UIVT-O); Demography (NHU-N)
Impakt faktor: 3.500, rok: 2022
Způsob publikování: Omezený přístup
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11538-022-01031-5

Running across the globe for nearly 2 years, the Covid-19 pandemic keeps demonstrating its strength. Despite a lot of understanding, uncertainty regarding the efficiency of interventions still persists. We developed an age-structured epidemic model parameterized with epidemiological and sociological data for the first Covid-19 wave in the Czech Republic and found that (1) starting the spring 2020 lockdown 4 days earlier might prevent half of the confirmed cases by the end of lockdown period, (2) personal protective measures such as face masks appear more effective than just a realized reduction in social contacts, (3) the strategy of sheltering just the elderly is not at all effective, and (4) leaving schools open is a risky strategy. Despite vaccination programs, evidence-based choice and timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions remains an effective weapon against the Covid-19 pandemic.
Trvalý link: https://hdl.handle.net/11104/0333831