Počet záznamů: 1  

Gambler’s fallacy and imperfect best response in legislative bargaining

  1. 1. 0472317 - NHU-N 2017 RIV US eng J - Článek v odborném periodiku
    Nunnari, S. - Zápal, Jan
    Gambler’s fallacy and imperfect best response in legislative bargaining.
    Games and Economic Behavior. Roč. 99, September (2016), s. 275-294. ISSN 0899-8256
    Institucionální podpora: RVO:67985998
    Klíčová slova: legislative bargaining * experiments * quantal response
    Kód oboru RIV: AH - Ekonomie
    Impakt faktor: 0.904, rok: 2016

    We investigate the implications of imperfect best response—in combination with different assumptions about correct (QRE) or incorrect beliefs (Quantal-Gambler's Fallacy or QGF)—in the alternating offer multilateral bargaining game. We prove that a QRE of this game exists and characterize the unique solution to the proposer's problem—that is, the proposal observed most frequently in a QRE. We structurally estimate this model on data from laboratory experiments, and show that it explains behavior better than the model with perfect best response: receivers vote probabilistically; proposers allocate resources mostly within a minimum winning coalition of legislators but do not fully exploit their bargaining power. Incorporating history-dependent beliefs about the future distribution of proposal power into the QRE model (QGF) leads to an even better match with the data, as this model implies slightly lower shares to the proposer, maintaining similar or higher frequencies of minimum winning coalitions and similar voting behavior.
    Trvalý link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0269658