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Developing a reduced-form ensemble of climate change scenarios for Europe and its application to selected impact indicators

  1. 1.
    0438270 - ÚFA 2016 RIV NL eng J - Článek v odborném periodiku
    Dubrovský, Martin - Trnka, M. - Holman, I. P. - Svobodová, E. - Harrison, P. A.
    Developing a reduced-form ensemble of climate change scenarios for Europe and its application to selected impact indicators.
    Climatic Change. Roč. 128, 3-4 (2015), s. 169-186. ISSN 0165-0009. E-ISSN 1573-1480
    Grant CEP: GA MŠMT LD12029
    Institucionální podpora: RVO:68378289
    Klíčová slova: global Climate Model * ensemble of models * climate change * climate change scenarios * climate change impact indices * Europe
    Obor OECD: Climatic research
    Impakt faktor: 3.344, rok: 2015
    http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-014-1297-7

    This paper presents a method for identifying a representative subset of global climate models (GCMs) for use in large-scale climate impact research. Based on objective criteria (GCM performance in reproducing the seasonal cycle of temperature and precipitation, and a subset ability to represent future inter-GCM variability), two candidate subsets are selected from a reference set of 16 GCMs. An additional subset based on subjective expert judgement is also analysed. The representativeness of the three subsets is validated (with respect to the reference set) and compared for future changes in temperature, precipitation and Palmer drought index Z (direct validation), and occurrence of the European corn borer and snow-cover characteristics implemented in the CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment Platform (indirect validation). The direct validation indicates that one of the objective-based subsets (ECHAM5/MPI-OM, CSIRO-Mk3.0, HadGEM1, GFDL-CM2.1 and IPSL-CM4 models) provides the best choice for the Europe-wide climate change impact study.
    Trvalý link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0244056

     
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