0426677 - NHÚ 2014 RIV CZ eng V - Výzkumná zpráva
Cincibuch, M. - Kejak, Michal - Vávra, D. - Auda, O. - Aslanyan, Gurgen - Bečičková, H. - Daniš, P. - Hřebíček, H. - Janjgava, Batlome - Kacer, R. - Kameník, O. - Konopecký, F. - Lamazoshvili, Beka - Lukáč, J. - Menkyna, Robert - Mirzoyan, Armen - Motl, T. - Musil, K. - Plotnikov, S. - Rasulova, Khanifakhon - Remo, A. - Vlček, J.
Modeling Uganda.
Prague: OGResearch, 2012. 117 s.
Grant CEP: GA MŠMT(CZ) LF11018
Institucionální podpora: RVO:67985998
Klíčová slova: Mozambique * forecasting and policy analysis system
Kód oboru RIV: AH - Ekonomie

The report has three chapters. The chapter 1 summarizes main features of the Ugandan economy relevant for building the FPAS. The chapter 2 presents the structural macroeconomic model and its properties captured by decompositions of variances of the model’s variables in terms of the model shocks and by its impulse-response functions. The chapter also describes Bayesian vector autoregressions used for the near-term forecasting. The chapter 3 evaluates how the models perform empirically. The forecasting power is assessed both in the sample as well as by using an out-of-the-sample comparison with the standard random-walk benchmark. We conclude that the FPAS performs satisfactorily in this comparison.
Trvalý link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0232363