Generalized Additive Models for Nowcasting Cloud Shading

0424720 - ÚI 2015 RIV US eng J - Článek v odborném periodiku
Brabec, Marek - Paulescu, M. - Badescu, V.
Generalized Additive Models for Nowcasting Cloud Shading.
Solar Energy. Roč. 101, March (2014), s. 272-282. ISSN 0038-092X. E-ISSN 1471-1257
Grant CEP: GA MŠMT LD12009
Grant ostatní: European Cooperation in Science and Technology(XE) COST ES1002
Institucionální podpora: RVO:67985807
Klíčová slova: sunshine number * nowcasting * generalized additive model * Markov chain
Kód oboru RIV: BB - Aplikovaná statistika, operační výzkum
Impakt faktor: 3.469, rok: 2014

The response time of a photovoltaic plant is very short and its output power follows the abrupt change in solar irradiance level due to alternate shadow by clouds. Presence of shading may be quantified by a binary variable: sunshine number (SSN). Various logistic Markovian models of SSN dynamics are introduced and discussed in this paper, going from simple to more complicated model structures. Radiometric data measured at 15 s lag during 2010 in Timisoara (Romania) are used to illustrate their real-world performance. The models are useful for short term forecasting related e.g. to photovoltaic conversion control, including more complicated events like ramp-like switches between overcast and clear regimes. Importantly, presented models are not black-box forecasting tools. They contain physically interpretable structure which is advantageous both in developing, checking and improvement of the model itself, but also as a tool for characterizing various systematic properties of cloud shading.
Trvalý link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0230751