Comparison of regional and at-site approaches to modelling probabilities of heavy precipitation

0368553 - ÚFA 2012 RIV GB eng J - Článek v odborném periodiku
Kyselý, Jan - Gaál, Ladislav - Picek, J.
Comparison of regional and at-site approaches to modelling probabilities of heavy precipitation.
International Journal of Climatology. Roč. 31, č. 10 (2011), s. 1457-1472. ISSN 0899-8418. E-ISSN 1097-0088
Grant CEP: GA AV ČR KJB300420801; GA ČR GAP209/10/2265; GA ČR GAP209/10/2045
Výzkumný záměr: CEZ:AV0Z30420517
Klíčová slova: extreme value analysis * regional frequency analysis * precipitation extremes * region-of-influence method * central Europe
Kód oboru RIV: DG - Vědy o atmosféře, meteorologie
Impakt faktor: 2.906, rok: 2011
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.2182/abstract

Several approaches to estimating distributions of precipitation extremes are compared by means of simulation experiments, and their applications into observed data in the Czech Republic are evaluated. Regional frequency models, which take into account data in fixed or flexible ‘regions’ when fitting a distribution at any site, lead to estimates with much smaller errors compared to a single-site analysis, and efficiently reduce random and climatologically irrelevant variations in the estimates of the model parameters and high quantiles. The region-of-influence methodology with a built-in regional homogeneity test is recognized as a useful approach, with the model based on proximity of sites outperforming the Hosking-Wallis regional frequency analysis.
Trvalý link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0202862