What would happen to barley production in Finland if global warming exceeded 4 °C? A model-based assessment

0361675 - ÚFA 2012 RIV NL eng J - Článek v odborném periodiku
Rötter, R.P. - Palosuo, T. - Pirttioja, N. K. - Dubrovský, Martin - Salo, T. - Fronzek, S. - Aikasalo, R. - Trnka, M. - Ristolainen, A. - Carter, T. R.
What would happen to barley production in Finland if global warming exceeded 4 °C? A model-based assessment.
European Journal of Agronomy. Roč. 35, č. 4 (2011), s. 205-214. ISSN 1161-0301. E-ISSN 1873-7331
Grant CEP: GA AV ČR IAA300420806
Výzkumný záměr: CEZ:AV0Z30420517
Klíčová slova: Barley * Crop growth simulation * Climatic variability * Sensitivity analysis * Plant breeding * Weather generator
Kód oboru RIV: DG - Vědy o atmosféře, meteorologie
Impakt faktor: 2.477, rok: 2011
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1161030111000694

With the rapid increases in temperature at high latitudes, conditions for crop production could change so dramatically that yields would be reduced, even accounting for the positive effects of CO2 fertilization. We use the WOFOST crop model to examine crop yield responses to a set of plausible climate change scenarios for Finland up to 2100 We use spring barley and calculate water-limited yields for two Finnish locations and two soil types. Scenarios include systematic increases in temperatures, changes in precipitation distribution and altered daily climatic variability using the M&Rfi weather generator. We also examine the effectiveness of a few adaptation options, such as shifts in sowing dates and hypothetical new crop cultivars. It is concluded that the positive effects of warming and elevated CO2 on cereal production at high latitudes are likely to be reversed at temperature increases exceeding 4 ºC. Only plant breeding efforts hold may reduce the risks of yield shortfall.
Trvalý link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0198941